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Markets

S&P2K; a new highs odyssey

August 28, 2014
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S&P2K; a new highs odyssey

Please excuse the summer lull – anticipating more regular posts after a well needed period of summer travel! Two posts ago (in late May) focused on the market ascent to 1,900. In relatively short order, another centennial milestone is surpassed with the market melt-up to 2,000 over the past 15 trading days. Recapping the market action this summer (while CJF was on hiatus):         market hit new highs in July multiple on the S&P 500 approached 16.5x (notably representing new cycle highs) several geopolitical fears hit (Iraq, Syria, Israel, Russia/Ukraine) none of the geopolitical fears came close to corralling the bull (only a 4% pullback ensued) still no correction of 10% (for those keeping track it’s been over 1,000 days since one) since Aug 7th, there...

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A tale of two growth rates; GDP and US corporate profits

June 3, 2014
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A tale of two growth rates; GDP and US corporate profits

Last week’s “second” 1Q14 GDP print revised to a -1.0% annualized growth rate relative to the prior print of +0.1%. The second 1Q14 GDP print was shrugged off, with equity markets rallying to new highs, in impressive fashion, given the seasonally low volumes around Memorial Day. While the 1Q14 print is still not “final” (there will be third print, and an ultimate benchmark revision) there is little fear for two consecutive down GDP quarters; the typical definition of a recession. Nonetheless, the real economy is still punk. The performance between the real economy, and the environment for corporate profits, is often confused, and wrongly, treated as one and the same thing. CJF holds the view that what’s ok for the economy is a nirvana for corporate profits. If the...

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1,900; now what?

May 27, 2014
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1,900; now what?

The US stock market, the best market in the world for a multitude of reasons, hit new highs on Friday, ascending to the 1,900 level, on a closing basis. The market is confounding because of the lack of normal draw-down (no meaningful pull-backs in a long enough time to be scary) and because many high profile stocks or stock indexes are way off recent highs. Yet the market is at a new high. This is based on capitalization weightings. An example can be found in the Russell 2000; comprised of the smallest 2,000 stocks within the Russell 3,000 (top 3,000 stocks in the US). The Russell 2000′s market capitalization is only about 8% of that of the Russell 3000. Select internet, growth, biotech, and small-cap stocks are under significant...

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The widow maker trade spreads from Japan to the US

May 19, 2014
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The widow maker trade spreads from Japan to the US

Since 1990, one trade that has always lost money, over any reasonable time period, has been the shorting of JGBs (Japanese 10-year). This trade, unique in its consistency, developed its own name; “the widow maker”. With JGBs yielding 57 bps today, the widow maker is alive and kicking. Over the past 24-year time period, JGB yields peaked around 8% in 1990, and trended steadily lower since. Within the US bond market, through the second half of 2013, into 2014, consensus developed on the inevitability of a sell-off, and potentially severe one. A one-sided consensus view is always dangerous in any market, creating heightened risks as new information is gleaned. The recent bout of inconsistent economic data, and degree to which active market participants were on the same side of...

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Risk-reduction driven market corrections are healthy; this one presents opportunities

April 14, 2014
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Risk-reduction driven market corrections are healthy; this one presents opportunities

The pullback in the market should not be a surprise. The real surprise is the extent of the market’s ascent over the past 18-months, without a single significant draw-down. Corrections are normal during the course of a bull market, and aid in accomplishing a number of items: building the wall of worry; an important source of future buying activity, stocks stop rising which bides time; earnings and cash flow growth can catch up to stock prices, and most obviously improving valuations and avoiding bubble-like conditions. There are a few types of corrections, all with different implications in terms of the correct response. Fortunately, for investors today, the current correction, although sure to impose short-term losses (and potentially heavy ones) is benign for longer-term oriented investors. 1) Corrections before a...

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Earnings preview for a bull market; what to expect for 1Q14

April 4, 2014
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Earnings preview for a bull market; what to expect for 1Q14

1Q14 earnings will begin in earnest by mid-April with the market flirting with new highs over the past several sessions. Geopolitical concerns, and Fed taper fears, are gradually fading into the background, and investors are in for a period of individual earnings results driving stocks, and ultimately, market performance. The setup for 1Q is unique; the weather was abysmal this quarter, depressing spring seasonal business activity. The issue of poor weather is well known, particularly for those living in the northern half of the US, so expect the market to look through depressed results. In a sweeping bull market (a good characterization of today’s market) investors tend to provide the benefit of the doubt, looking for excuses to stick with, and build positions. The focus turns towards “what could...

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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

March 25, 2014
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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

Over the past 18-months, the S&P 500 surged 43%, without more than a 6% drawdown. That dear reader is a Bull market. This post is somewhat backward looking based on the writing hiatus at CF.  The forward plan is for content at regular interviews from here. Where we stood: Entering June 2012, the market stood at approximately 1,300 (S&P 500). Concerns: Europe redux EM collapse Fed policy “the boat was already missed” Since June 2012, the market powered ahead, in retrospect, making all of the above concerns appear overblown relative to the investment opportunities at this time.  At a minimum, the above concerns were dramatically ill-timed. CF’s outlook for 2012 was bullish but not enough so.  In the 2012 themes post: Crackerjack 2012 predictions: No recession <check> Valuation matters and...

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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

March 1, 2012
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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

Beware of the one-way, one-speed runaway train! Usually in the normal chain of events the train stops, lets the passengers off, turns around, and starts going the other way. In a rare circumstance, all hell breaks loose and the train can’t be turned around and runs off the track and over the cliff. In the investment world it is rare to find this type of “accelerating in your favor (or against you)” investment theme. Two recent moves highlight how the risks can be largest in the most comfortable havens. In less than a month, the seemingly invincible Yen has sold off from 76 to 81 (the USD dollar now buys 5 more) which is a 6.6% move, and a very large one-month move for the currency market. Not to...

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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

January 19, 2012
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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

Fourth quarter earnings season has commenced while the market is off to a torrid start to the year. While the S&P 500 is up 4% year-to-date, there are a number of riskier indexes and sectors which are doing considerably better. The NASDAQ is up 6.3%, the Russell 2000 5.2%, the Hang Seng 7.6%, the Brazilian BOVESPA 9%, and the S&P Homebuilders up 17%. These are stunning returns over a two-week period relative to how difficult it was to simply earn flat index returns plus the dividend yield for all of 2011. The market did this last year in January and February so there is a bit of a deja-vu feel to the start of the year. From higher valuations, it was a rough rest of the year from February...

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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

January 6, 2012
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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

PARANORMAL: beyond the range of normal experience or scientific explanation, not in accordance with scientific laws. A great friend of mine, and incredibly savvy investor, recently pointed me to Bill Gross’ January 2012 Investment Outlook: “Towards the Paranormal”. He suggested it was an intriguing, provocative, and worthwhile read. After reading the four page monthly I immediately agreed with all of those qualifications even though aspects of the paranormal thesis didn’t sit exactly right with me. After pondering for a couple of days, here are my observations (Bill Gross, if you are a Crackerjack Finance reader, please feel free to counter-comment at any time). Now would be the time to read the original piece on the PIMCO website to get much more out of today’s thoughts. The financial markets are...

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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

January 3, 2012
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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

In 2011, the stock market experienced some dramatic swings, and with heightened volatility, managed some months of both tremendous strength and sickening weakness. After an exhausting ride the S&P 500 index returned to precisely where it started. For those who appreciate extreme precision, the market was down on the year based on the second decimal point of the index. The S&P 500 started the year at 1,257.64 and officially closed at 1,257.60. That is about a third of a basis point down and the reason the final index return has been recorded as: (0.00%). Of course the actual return that investors received includes dividends, and on this measure the S&P 500 total return was 2.11%. After clarifying the details, the market essentially tread water for the year. We commence...

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Santa Hits the Beach as Warm Weather Continues in December

December 22, 2011
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Santa Hits the Beach as Warm Weather Continues in December

The warmth and subtle humidity in the air stirs emotions as one envisions heading to the ball park for opening day, preparing for the start of a new fishing season, and even visualizes (perhaps with dread) how that new swimsuit or bikini will fit. Oh wait, it’s December 22nd! The northeast part of the United States has felt like spring, all through the month of December. While quite enjoyable and enabling a number of extra runs, outdoor tennis, and pleasurable strolls through the park, the weather is unseasonable enough to impact typical economic seasonal patterns. It’s been somewhat of a running joke in New York City: “Don’t worry it will eventually get really cold, it always does!” Adages be damned, as Mother Nature has surprised us all. Of course...

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