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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

April 23, 2012
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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

I came across an article in The Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard which does a good job of highlighting the circularity of the ECB’s LTRO and associated bond buying. As banks throughout Europe took advantage of ECB stimulus, which they were de facto encouraged to do by Mario Draghi and the ECB, it is clear that both the stimulus itself as well as ECB sovereign debt purchases will be needed until there is a solid economic recovery throughout the periphery of Europe. With austerity implementation to reduce deficits, economic recovery for many counties in Europe could be years away. With the automatic stabilization mechanisms in peripheral Europe broken as weaker economic growth leads to higher interest rates it will become necessary for Europe to continue to cap interest rates to...

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Bernanke’s Labor Market Speech – The Case for Continued Accommodative Policy

March 30, 2012
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Bernanke’s Labor Market Speech – The Case for Continued Accommodative Policy

Ben Bernanke made a highly referenced speech earlier this week, which was credited with fueling a sharp rally in the stock market. The speech was colorfully titled: “Recent Developments...

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Welcome to the World, North Korea – Investment Opportunities Will Eventually Sprout

March 13, 2012
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Welcome to the World, North Korea – Investment Opportunities Will Eventually Sprout

North Korea has been isolated since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Significant amounts of communist aid ceased, and the fall of communism across Eastern Europe ultimately...

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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

March 1, 2012
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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

Beware of the one-way, one-speed runaway train! Usually in the normal chain of events the train stops, lets the passengers off, turns around, and starts going the other way....

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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part Two – Why the US is Well Positioned

February 22, 2012
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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part Two – Why the US is Well Positioned

The differences between the US situation post-financial crisis and Japan in 1990 are stark. The previous post outlined how extreme things got in Japan and how ahead of itself...

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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part One – What Happened in Japan?

February 9, 2012
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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part One – What Happened in Japan?

The process of deleveraging has been in place since the onset of global recession and financial crisis in 2008. Many investors and economists have highlighted how long the process...

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When Greek Debt Servicing Resolves – Spain is the Key to the Eurozone Compact

February 2, 2012
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When Greek Debt Servicing Resolves – Spain is the Key to the Eurozone Compact

The Spanish Empire reached the height of its powers in the 1500’s. Naval supremacy, decades of rapidly rising wealth, discovery of gold, and influence over the Catholic papacy led...

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Global Demographics – An Important Multi-Year Investment Theme

January 26, 2012
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Global Demographics – An Important Multi-Year Investment Theme

With much fanfare, estimates of the earth’s population recently surpassed 7 billion people. Population growth rates have been staggering for decades, for a number of reasons. The straightforward explanation...

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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

January 19, 2012
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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

Fourth quarter earnings season has commenced while the market is off to a torrid start to the year. While the S&P 500 is up 4% year-to-date, there are a...

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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

January 12, 2012
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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

December inflation data was released this morning in France and Germany. In both countries, the inflation rate was higher than expected and failed to come down relative to prior...

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Philippine Central Bank – Another Emerging Market Set to Ease Monetary Policy in the First Quarter

January 11, 2012
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Philippine Central Bank – Another Emerging Market Set to Ease Monetary Policy in the First Quarter

The Philippines is a very large nation that is off the radar of most mainstream economic analysis. The country has a population of 93 million, and the economy has...

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Negative German Yields – Implications for Risk Averse Financial Markets

January 10, 2012
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Negative German Yields – Implications for Risk Averse Financial Markets

On Monday, Germany gained entrance to a rarified club of sovereign nations which were paid to borrow money. This has been a feat which the US was able to...

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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

January 6, 2012
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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

PARANORMAL: beyond the range of normal experience or scientific explanation, not in accordance with scientific laws. A great friend of mine, and incredibly savvy investor, recently pointed me to...

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Spain & Germany – In Sickness and in Health

January 4, 2012
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Spain & Germany – In Sickness and in Health

The plan forward with the Eurozone crisis is the German plan forward. Germany has proposed closer fiscal union and increased austerity for EU-17 nations with high deficits and/or high...

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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

January 3, 2012
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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

In 2011, the stock market experienced some dramatic swings, and with heightened volatility, managed some months of both tremendous strength and sickening weakness. After an exhausting ride the S&P...

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Sears Holdings (SHLD) – Flawed Strategic Experiment Results in Retailing Train Wreck – AutoZone and Sears Comparison

December 28, 2011
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Sears Holdings (SHLD) – Flawed Strategic Experiment Results in Retailing Train Wreck – AutoZone and Sears Comparison

Sears Holdings pre-reported Q4 results which showed a rapid deterioration yesterday. The most alarming item in the press release was the rapid deterioration in sales trends at both Sears...

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Santa Hits the Beach as Warm Weather Continues in December

December 22, 2011
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Santa Hits the Beach as Warm Weather Continues in December

The warmth and subtle humidity in the air stirs emotions as one envisions heading to the ball park for opening day, preparing for the start of a new fishing...

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