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Yellen Fed & Monetary Policy: “Running it Hot”

September 24, 2016
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Yellen Fed & Monetary Policy: “Running it Hot”

The September Fed meeting issued few surprises; fed funds were not hiked, as was telegraphed by the Brainard speech. While the Fed maintained interest rates, in the press conference, Yellen once again, found a way to interject incremental dovishness, driving interest rates lower, and asset prices up. The playbook of the Yellen Fed for the past 3-years continues. The new focus of the Fed revolves around finally acknowledging that the Philips Curve is a rubbish inflation model, and that more slack exists in the labor market, and the economy, than previously believed, hindering an acceleration in inflation pressures. Cynics will observe that this new found slack wasn’t focused on by hawkish Fed Governors, up until September 10th, when talk of two hikes this year were still be floated. The...

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Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

September 21, 2016
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Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

VIX back to the 15 range ahead of a consequential Fed meeting, deep into the economic cycle. Volatility crush continues into actual central bank announcements. Zombie US markets can’t go down...

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Inmates Running the Asylum; Fed Policy 8-years into Recovery

September 16, 2016
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Inmates Running the Asylum; Fed Policy 8-years into Recovery

Last week, a Fed Governor, made comments hitting Bloomberg, that the Fed was not a handmaiden to the markets. The comments, not part of a major speech, and difficult...

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Volatility Suppression Challenged

September 12, 2016
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Volatility Suppression Challenged

Since the BREXIT rebound/rip, it’s been an exceptionally stable summer. Few predicted that the unexpected BREXIT vote, would be an unequivocal positive to markets. The tell, quite clear after...

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On Brexit

June 28, 2016
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On Brexit

What a tumultuous 5 days. The lurching feeling is all the more acute after a period of one-way markets (up) and declining volatility. With polls shifting towards “Remain” last...

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Valuing the Yellen Put

April 7, 2016
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Valuing the Yellen Put

The Yellen Put, follows a line of Federal Reserve inspired put options, valuable to market participants of specific Fed Chair eras. The rationale behind the Fed Chair put is...

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Wall Street vs. Main Street Investment Attributes

February 29, 2016
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Wall Street vs. Main Street Investment Attributes

Market leadership is constantly changing as sub-sectors come in and out of favor and particular investment attributes ebb and flow in popularity. One new theme in 2016 is the...

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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

January 31, 2016
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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

What a start to the year. CJF’s contrarian prediction of 1,860 on the S&P came to be on January 20th. Subsequently, the market rallied strongly on the hint of...

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2016

January 7, 2016
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2016

“I would say happy new year but it’s not happy; it’s exactly the same as last year except colder.” -Robert Clark I find the quote fitting for financial markets,...

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Nike Business On Fire; China Accelerates

December 23, 2015
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Nike Business On Fire; China Accelerates

Nike (NKE) is in the midst of a strong 3-year run; operating trends are at cycle-high growth rates, health & wellness as a category is growing around the world,...

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The Fed Awakens; Creates Negative Global Market Backdrop

December 21, 2015
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The Fed Awakens; Creates Negative Global Market Backdrop

At the widely anticipated December 16th Fed meeting, the Board of Governors did the expected, and finally raised the US federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The rate-hike...

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Policy Driven Markets are Treacherous

December 10, 2015
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Policy Driven Markets are Treacherous

Volatility in the stock market is rising, intraday swings more violent, and high-to-low ranges increasing. The lurching action of the market is not driven by fundamentals, it’s difficult to...

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ISM sinks to post-2009 lows; Industrial Economy Recession a Catch 22 for Fed

December 2, 2015
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ISM sinks to post-2009 lows; Industrial Economy Recession a Catch 22 for Fed

November ISM sank to the lowest level since 2009. Stunning, that the ISM (Institute for Supply Chain Management) survey, formerly known as NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers), printed...

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Black Friday Retail Dud; Online Share Shift Accelerates

November 28, 2015
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Black Friday Retail Dud; Online Share Shift Accelerates

Bah humbug. Black Friday jumped the shark sometime around the turn of the century. Nonetheless, a disproportionate amount of retail and media focus continue to emphasize Black Friday’s importance...

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Tiffany (TIF) Tourism Business Slows; Strong Dollar Constraints Evident

November 25, 2015
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Tiffany (TIF) Tourism Business Slows; Strong Dollar Constraints Evident

Yesterday, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) reported lackluster results for the third quarter, reducing annual earnings guidance for the second time in 3-months. Tiffany is a useful barometer for the...

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Qui n’avance pas, recule

November 16, 2015
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Qui n’avance pas, recule

We all eat at restaurants, go to stadiums, and walk down the street. The tragically successful terrorist attacks in Paris highlight the vulnerability of the human condition at any...

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Midsummer Issues Persist; Divergent Global Central Bank Actions Create Challenges

November 10, 2015
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Midsummer Issues Persist; Divergent Global Central Bank Actions Create Challenges

The market moves fast. Thankfully, in the rest of the world, trends of all kinds, generally move at a measured pace. The market overreacts to events and day-to-day happenings...

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