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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

January 31, 2016
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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

What a start to the year. CJF’s contrarian prediction of 1,860 on the S&P came to be on January 20th. Subsequently, the market rallied strongly on the hint of more quantitative easing out of the ECB, and the adoption of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan. Any doubts that 2016 will be a volatile, and difficult year, should now be erased. After a tumultuous January for investing, a period when seasonality and investment inflows are supposed to support markets, CJF is stepping back to assess big picture dynamics for the global economy and the overall investment environment. At risk of being overly obvious: Something is not quite right with the global economy In the seventh year of recovery since the financial crisis, Brazil is in recession, Russia...

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2016

January 7, 2016
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2016

“I would say happy new year but it’s not happy; it’s exactly the same as last year except colder.” -Robert Clark I find the quote fitting for financial markets,...

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Nike Business On Fire; China Accelerates

December 23, 2015
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Nike Business On Fire; China Accelerates

Nike (NKE) is in the midst of a strong 3-year run; operating trends are at cycle-high growth rates, health & wellness as a category is growing around the world,...

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The Fed Awakens; Creates Negative Global Market Backdrop

December 21, 2015
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The Fed Awakens; Creates Negative Global Market Backdrop

At the widely anticipated December 16th Fed meeting, the Board of Governors did the expected, and finally raised the US federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The rate-hike...

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Policy Driven Markets are Treacherous

December 10, 2015
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Policy Driven Markets are Treacherous

Volatility in the stock market is rising, intraday swings more violent, and high-to-low ranges increasing. The lurching action of the market is not driven by fundamentals, it’s difficult to...

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ISM sinks to post-2009 lows; Industrial Economy Recession a Catch 22 for Fed

December 2, 2015
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ISM sinks to post-2009 lows; Industrial Economy Recession a Catch 22 for Fed

November ISM sank to the lowest level since 2009. Stunning, that the ISM (Institute for Supply Chain Management) survey, formerly known as NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers), printed...

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Black Friday Retail Dud; Online Share Shift Accelerates

November 28, 2015
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Black Friday Retail Dud; Online Share Shift Accelerates

Bah humbug. Black Friday jumped the shark sometime around the turn of the century. Nonetheless, a disproportionate amount of retail and media focus continue to emphasize Black Friday’s importance...

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Tiffany (TIF) Tourism Business Slows; Strong Dollar Constraints Evident

November 25, 2015
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Tiffany (TIF) Tourism Business Slows; Strong Dollar Constraints Evident

Yesterday, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) reported lackluster results for the third quarter, reducing annual earnings guidance for the second time in 3-months. Tiffany is a useful barometer for the...

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Qui n’avance pas, recule

November 16, 2015
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Qui n’avance pas, recule

We all eat at restaurants, go to stadiums, and walk down the street. The tragically successful terrorist attacks in Paris highlight the vulnerability of the human condition at any...

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Midsummer Issues Persist; Divergent Global Central Bank Actions Create Challenges

November 10, 2015
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Midsummer Issues Persist; Divergent Global Central Bank Actions Create Challenges

The market moves fast. Thankfully, in the rest of the world, trends of all kinds, generally move at a measured pace. The market overreacts to events and day-to-day happenings...

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The Chickens Come Home to Roost; More Fraudulent Business Practices Exposed at Iconix Brand Group

November 6, 2015
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The Chickens Come Home to Roost; More Fraudulent Business Practices Exposed at Iconix Brand Group

Usually, the juicy, salacious stuff comes to the fore during recession or crisis, when past misconduct can no longer be concealed. Recently, between Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and Volkswagen, there are...

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On Sentiment; How the Market Mini-Crashed and Exploded Right Back

November 4, 2015
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On Sentiment; How the Market Mini-Crashed and Exploded Right Back

The stock market is on fire. As negative, dour, downbeat, and gloomy was August, the market this fall (early fall), is contrastingly, positive, nonchalant, optimistic, and even euphoric. So...

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The World Wants More Coffee and Starbucks Owns the Category

October 31, 2015
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The World Wants More Coffee and Starbucks Owns the Category

During a controversial 3Q earnings period, patterns continue to emerge, with beloved companies accelerating business trends in the midst of a tough global economy. Winners are thriving with differentiated...

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Tim Cook & Apple Confirm China Strength

October 28, 2015
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Tim Cook & Apple Confirm China Strength

Apple posted an excellent Q3 result; 48 million iPhone shipments exceeded expectations, gross margin approached 40% (32 bps above last year), and EPS grew 43%, an impressive growth rate...

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Amazon and Wal-Mart; Atypical Market Rally Driven by Disintermediation and Secular Trends

October 24, 2015
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Amazon and Wal-Mart; Atypical Market Rally Driven by Disintermediation and Secular Trends

Wal-Mart recently hosted an Analyst Day to update Wall Street on current operating trends and strategy. The amount of investment needed to modernize the store base, and improve the...

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5 Investment Patterns That Don’t Make Sense

October 14, 2015
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5 Investment Patterns That Don’t Make Sense

2015 is shaping up to be a challenging year for investments. The market swoon in mid-August caught most off-guard, and the subsequent violent recovery arrived right after several prominent...

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Dovish Fed Minutes Ramp Market; Valuing the Yellen Put

October 10, 2015
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Dovish Fed Minutes Ramp Market; Valuing the Yellen Put

The September 16-17th FOMC minutes were released Thursday afternoon, continuing the market’s Beast Mode reaction to Fed dovishness. The S&P 500 completed the best week of the year, barely down-ticking...

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