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PTFI

December 20, 2017
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PTFI

Summarizing an investment mantra into an acronym is a common practice, and generally, a lazy short cut to sum things up. The investment themes for 2017 oscillated from technology/growth, to financials, to Trump tax trade, to retail, and now, to just being long whatever makes sense irrespective of the theme the idea falls under. It’s a good time to be long whatever you are long. This tactic, practically applied, is working, provided you are long enough different “stuff”. One could be doing very well in the second half of this year, owning anything in the Russell 2000, any bank, any domestically oriented industrial company, any retailer with a high tax rate, any collection of stocks you amassed from randomly throwing darts at letters and coming up with tickers, most...

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Odd Market Swings Intra-day; Volatility Crush Over Multi-day

April 19, 2017
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Odd Market Swings Intra-day; Volatility Crush Over Multi-day

Earlier this month, April 5th was an odd day for financial markets. During market hours, it was interesting to behold one of the strongest single hours of the year,...

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Holding Pattern

March 31, 2017
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Holding Pattern

The relentless grind higher in equity markets continues irrespective of periods of policy awkwardness, twitter rants, and republican in-fighting. Recent announcements that corporate tax reform isn’t likely until August/September...

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2017

February 1, 2017
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2017

2016 started in a tailspin with spiraling China meltdown fears. Those fears proved to be ill-timed, and against most prognostications, despite BREXIT, the start of Fed rate hikes, and...

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Turkey Day Highs

November 29, 2016
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Turkey Day Highs

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the...

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Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

November 9, 2016
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Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the...

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Complacent Market; Fraught with Risk

October 28, 2016
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Complacent Market; Fraught with Risk

In a shockingly flat stretch, noteworthy for the lack of volatility, and an incredibly tight range, the market has gone absolutely NOWHERE from July to October. 20-30 basis point...

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Pounded; BREXIT Risks Hit Markets

October 12, 2016
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Pounded; BREXIT Risks Hit Markets

In a low volatility, range bound market, it doesn’t take much to cause a break. Rising global bonds yields are a major concern that double-impact the market; higher future...

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No Man’s Land

October 5, 2016
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No Man’s Land

an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the...

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Yellen Fed & Monetary Policy: “Running it Hot”

September 24, 2016
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Yellen Fed & Monetary Policy: “Running it Hot”

The September Fed meeting issued few surprises; fed funds were not hiked, as was telegraphed by the Brainard speech. While the Fed maintained interest rates, in the press conference,...

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Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

September 21, 2016
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Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

VIX back to the 15 range ahead of a consequential Fed meeting, deep into the economic cycle. Volatility crush continues into actual central bank announcements. Zombie US markets can’t go down...

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Inmates Running the Asylum; Fed Policy 8-years into Recovery

September 16, 2016
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Inmates Running the Asylum; Fed Policy 8-years into Recovery

Last week, a Fed Governor, made comments hitting Bloomberg, that the Fed was not a handmaiden to the markets. The comments, not part of a major speech, and difficult...

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Volatility Suppression Challenged

September 12, 2016
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Volatility Suppression Challenged

Since the BREXIT rebound/rip, it’s been an exceptionally stable summer. Few predicted that the unexpected BREXIT vote, would be an unequivocal positive to markets. The tell, quite clear after...

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On Brexit

June 28, 2016
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On Brexit

What a tumultuous 5 days. The lurching feeling is all the more acute after a period of one-way markets (up) and declining volatility. With polls shifting towards “Remain” last...

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Valuing the Yellen Put

April 7, 2016
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Valuing the Yellen Put

The Yellen Put, follows a line of Federal Reserve inspired put options, valuable to market participants of specific Fed Chair eras. The rationale behind the Fed Chair put is...

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Wall Street vs. Main Street Investment Attributes

February 29, 2016
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Wall Street vs. Main Street Investment Attributes

Market leadership is constantly changing as sub-sectors come in and out of favor and particular investment attributes ebb and flow in popularity. One new theme in 2016 is the...

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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

January 31, 2016
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China Slowdown Will Plague Markets For Years

What a start to the year. CJF’s contrarian prediction of 1,860 on the S&P came to be on January 20th. Subsequently, the market rallied strongly on the hint of...

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