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Google is getting cheaper; valuation attractive after consistent growth and stock pullback

April 17, 2014
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Google is getting cheaper; valuation attractive after consistent growth and stock pullback

Google continues to roll. The share price will zig and zag but the company is making strides by investing for growth and positioning for better results in the future. Current results are still quite respectable today and earnings and cash flow growth are catching up to the stock price. The GOOG investment theme has been a good one since 2011 (this stock has been a CJF favorite) and multi-month periods of stock price pauses are generally good times to consider an entry point for enduring growth stocks. Some general dynamics for GOOG investment have been in place for several quarters: Very strong sales growth, generally north of 20% adjusted for one-time items and currency. Dramatic market share gain within advertising markets as spend shifts from traditional media to digital...

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Risk-reduction driven market corrections are healthy; this one presents opportunities

April 14, 2014
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Risk-reduction driven market corrections are healthy; this one presents opportunities

The pullback in the market should not be a surprise. The real surprise is the extent of the market’s ascent over the past 18-months, without a single significant draw-down....

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Alcoa is “reinventing the wheel” – potential to be a big multi-year investment theme

April 11, 2014
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Alcoa is “reinventing the wheel” – potential to be a big multi-year investment theme

Back-to-back posts on Alcoa (AA) to follow up on a powerful investment theme with the potential for outsized returns over several years. There is a time and a place...

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Alcoa (AA); well positioned and stock worth revisiting

April 7, 2014
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Alcoa (AA); well positioned and stock worth revisiting

Alcoa (AA) just hasn’t received respect over the past several years. This is in the process of changing today, and AA has the potential to continue its rally to...

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Earnings preview for a bull market; what to expect for 1Q14

April 4, 2014
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Earnings preview for a bull market; what to expect for 1Q14

1Q14 earnings will begin in earnest by mid-April with the market flirting with new highs over the past several sessions. Geopolitical concerns, and Fed taper fears, are gradually fading...

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Time to go global with hydraulic fracturing investments

April 1, 2014
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Time to go global with hydraulic fracturing investments

Ukraine is dependent on Russian energy sources; an unsustainable co-dependence, which is now set to change. In fact, Europe, more focused on green initiatives, is woefully behind the US...

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Crimea Annexation; the implications for global capital allocation

March 27, 2014
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Crimea Annexation; the implications for global capital allocation

Around geopolitical events, political posturing is generally the short-term focus for all parties involved, and markets, but the longer-term implications are often unrelated to what is obvious in the...

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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

March 25, 2014
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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

Over the past 18-months, the S&P 500 surged 43%, without more than a 6% drawdown. That dear reader is a Bull market. This post is somewhat backward looking based on...

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How Heavily Shorted is Facebook?

May 30, 2012
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How Heavily Shorted is Facebook?

It is well known how the Facebook (FB) IPO is setting up to be the flop of the decade. Stunning that one of the profound technological/media companies of a...

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Heinz – An Emerging Market Food Leader

May 29, 2012
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Heinz – An Emerging Market Food Leader

Heinz (HNZ) had an Analyst Day on Thursday last week with about four hours of management presentations and Q&A posted on the investor relations section of the Heinz website....

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Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

May 22, 2012
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Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

European leaders have inadvertently created one of the financial world’s largest negative feedback mechanisms. By issuing long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) with cheap ECB funding for terms up to three...

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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

May 18, 2012
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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

Over the past week, it has become clear that a third annual conflagration throughout Europe is upon us. The crisis has morphed yet again, and like The Hydra, it...

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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

April 23, 2012
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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

I came across an article in The Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard which does a good job of highlighting the circularity of the ECB’s LTRO and associated bond buying. As...

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Bernanke’s Labor Market Speech – The Case for Continued Accommodative Policy

March 30, 2012
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Bernanke’s Labor Market Speech – The Case for Continued Accommodative Policy

Ben Bernanke made a highly referenced speech earlier this week, which was credited with fueling a sharp rally in the stock market. The speech was colorfully titled: “Recent Developments...

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Welcome to the World, North Korea – Investment Opportunities Will Eventually Sprout

March 13, 2012
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Welcome to the World, North Korea – Investment Opportunities Will Eventually Sprout

North Korea has been isolated since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Significant amounts of communist aid ceased, and the fall of communism across Eastern Europe ultimately...

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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

March 1, 2012
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First the Japanese Yen and then Gold – There is No Safe Haven Currency Panacea

Beware of the one-way, one-speed runaway train! Usually in the normal chain of events the train stops, lets the passengers off, turns around, and starts going the other way....

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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part Two – Why the US is Well Positioned

February 22, 2012
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The Economic Process of Deleveraging Part Two – Why the US is Well Positioned

The differences between the US situation post-financial crisis and Japan in 1990 are stark. The previous post outlined how extreme things got in Japan and how ahead of itself...

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