2017

2016 started in a tailspin with spiraling China meltdown fears. Those fears proved to be ill-timed, and against most prognostications, despite BREXIT, the start of Fed rate hikes, and the looniest election anyone can remember with a shocker outcome, the market went on to have a gangbuster 2016, producing a total return of 12%. The […]

Turkey Day Highs

turkey

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome […]

Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

trump

In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the states expected to lean his way. Stocks, currencies, and commodity markets are in disarray. The S&P 500 futures sank approximately 100 points (~5%) around midnight, with […]

Complacent Market; Fraught with Risk

stuck-in-mud

In a shockingly flat stretch, noteworthy for the lack of volatility, and an incredibly tight range, the market has gone absolutely NOWHERE from July to October. 20-30 basis point moves feel outsized, even though they are not, in any sort of historical context. On days when the market goes up, the VIX falls to a […]

Pounded; BREXIT Risks Hit Markets

brexit

In a low volatility, range bound market, it doesn’t take much to cause a break. Rising global bonds yields are a major concern that double-impact the market; higher future business costs of funding growth, financing acquisitions, and implementing share repurchases, while, in tandem, high equity valuations are pressured. Now the market has another major worry. […]

No Man’s Land

no_mans_land

an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the tape continue. How did markets arrive at a point where a 3% pull-back is petrifying, and a 5% pull-back feels like a crash? The Brexit pull-back […]

Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

alphaville

VIX back to the 15 range ahead of a consequential Fed meeting, deep into the economic cycle.┬áVolatility crush continues into actual central bank announcements.┬áZombie US markets can’t go down but can’t rally either. After recent, underwhelming ECB announcements, markets sense more to come from the Fed, yet a gasping sense reigns omnipresent. What, actually, can […]

Volatility Suppression Challenged

rough-seas

Since the BREXIT rebound/rip, it’s been an exceptionally stable summer. Few predicted that the unexpected BREXIT vote, would be an unequivocal positive to markets. The tell, quite clear after the fact, was the global rate plunge, and the US 10-year yield sinking to the 1.35% range, around the 4th of July. The perfect combination arose […]

On Brexit

england euro cup

What a tumultuous 5 days. The lurching feeling is all the more acute after a period of one-way markets (up) and declining volatility. With polls shifting towards “Remain” last week, the prospect of all-time highs in the S&P 500 held an aura of inevitability. The unexpected Brexit vote, by a solid 4 point margin, tanked […]

Valuing the Yellen Put

janet yellen dove

The Yellen Put, follows a line of Federal Reserve inspired put options, valuable to market participants of specific Fed Chair eras. The rationale behind the Fed Chair put is simple; with the Federal Reserve so vigilant to support any downtick in the economy and/or markets with interest rate cuts (Greenspan), quantitative easing (Bernanke), and ZIRF […]