Black Friday Retail Dud; Online Share Shift Accelerates

Bah humbug. Black Friday jumped the shark sometime around the turn of the century. Nonetheless, a disproportionate amount of retail and media focus continue to emphasize Black Friday’s importance as an event. While declining over several years, this year got markedly worse, to the point where media reports were forced to highlight the “normality” of […]

Tiffany (TIF) Tourism Business Slows; Strong Dollar Constraints Evident

Yesterday, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) reported lackluster results for the third quarter, reducing annual earnings guidance for the second time in 3-months. Tiffany is a useful barometer for the global luxury consumer; business spans across all developed geographies, across multiple price points, in a variety of retail formats. Tiffany is iconic for its branded diamonds […]

The Chickens Come Home to Roost; More Fraudulent Business Practices Exposed at Iconix Brand Group

Usually, the juicy, salacious stuff comes to the fore during recession or crisis, when past misconduct can no longer be concealed. Recently, between Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and Volkswagen, there are plenty of good fraud stories to go around. Yesterday, sigh, Iconix Brand Group (ICON) revealed that its accounting statements, since 2013, were presented with smoke and […]

The World Wants More Coffee and Starbucks Owns the Category

During a controversial 3Q earnings period, patterns continue to emerge, with beloved companies accelerating business trends in the midst of a tough global economy. Winners are thriving with differentiated brands, business models, and strategy; the stock market is awarding the victors to an almost unprecedented degree with rich valuations and surging stock prices. On the […]

Tim Cook & Apple Confirm China Strength

Apple posted an excellent Q3 result; 48 million iPhone shipments exceeded expectations, gross margin approached 40% (32 bps above last year), and EPS grew 43%, an impressive growth rate for the largest company in the world by market capitalization. Mac computer units grew 3% despite a 11% contraction in the overall global PC market. Iterations […]

Amazon and Wal-Mart; Atypical Market Rally Driven by Disintermediation and Secular Trends

Wal-Mart recently hosted an Analyst Day to update Wall Street on current operating trends and strategy. The amount of investment needed to modernize the store base, and improve the overall customer offering is staggering. Wal-Mart will experience a second consecutive year of earnings decline in 2016. The stock took the update poorly, falling over 12% […]

Utilities Utilities Utilities; sound investment for a slower growth, low rate world

What a rally! In two sessions, the S&P 500 rallied 5%, almost 100 handles from the Friday low. The ex-post “cause” of the rally seems to be the punk September Employment Report, which boxes the Fed into a corner. Yellen’s inertia, and dovishness, during the September press conference, coupled with the subsequent soft employment data, […]

Nike Bone Crusher; China’s Economy isn’t Collapsing

Maybe the economy in China isn’t collapsing. Nike reported a bone crusher of a quarterly report last night; a stark wake-up call for China bears. Nike management credibility is higher than that of the Chinese government, and this earnings report, at this juncture, is stunningly good. Nike segment reports its future orders by geography, adjusted […]

Brazil’s Economic Miracle; Seeing the Monster

The depth of corruption and scandal at Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras) isn’t your typical run of the mill emerging market scam. A conflux of events around the world, built up over decades, fostered the conditions for a defrauding of this magnitude. Post financial crisis, global central bank stimulus, created an environment devoid of scrutiny, resulting in […]

Whole Foods proactively lowering prices; an opportunity for the patient

For a retailer, cutting prices generates a certain amount of self-inflicted pain through the P&L. The problem is rather intuitive; existing customers continue to purchase the same amount of goods at the new lower prices (hurts sales growth) and it takes time, to an uncertain extent, to attract new customers to the better value offering. […]