Posts Tagged ‘Italy’
Magnifico! – Getting to Know Mario Draghi & Analysis of the ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
The global equity markets have been held hostage by fears of a crisis since the summer. Taking another step back; crisis fears, macro, and policy responses have really been driving all financial markets since the summer of 2008. To be clear, the economy always has a meaningful impact on the investing environment, but the recent…Read More
When Will the Market Start to be Forward Looking – Early Signals from Asia?
The markets have been through a period of wicked volatility with a significant pullback almost to the point of entering a new bear market. Intraday the S&P 500 was down 20% from its high but closed above those levels and went up from there. From the market’s closing bottom of 1,099 the S&P had a…Read More
Welcome to the ECB Mario Draghi!
Who is Mario Draghi? Today is day #1 of a new job for Mr. Draghi, the President of the ECB, which right now is the world’s most powerful position in finance. Under normal circumstances, that position would be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board but at the present moment, the ECB President will have…Read More
Europe’s Eleventh Hour Fix
After keeping the world on edge and pushing up against the brink of a European recession, details of the European fix are trickling out. It is sure to be a headline filled Thursday, Friday, and weekend. I won’t focus on the specific details because many of them still aren’t known and the ones that have…Read More
Financial Conditions are Driving all the Market Fears
Positive data and developments on the real economy front are being ignored while increases in financial stress are being focused on. The pervasive gloom in the financial markets is a result of growing fears of another financial crisis. If this were to unfold, the financial crisis would surely cause a global recession but I’m remaining…Read More
Greece Will Stay On Board – Merkel and Papandreou Plan a Dinner Date in Berlin
Greece will ultimately stay on board. There I’ve said it – and it is really what I think will happen. There were a number of “unity” headlines hitting over night which have led to a continuation of the rally in global risk assets. Emerging Markets which looked sufficiently panic sold to call out yesterday are…Read More
Why A European Sovereign Debt Crisis Can Be Avoided
The European sovereign debt crisis has dominated financial news and been the primary driver of markets for the past month. I would argue that we are in an actual crisis in Europe and this is no longer about fears of a crisis. When banks can’t finance independently through the market and when large countries can’t…Read More
Chitaly Starts to Mambo Italiano – China in Talks To Buy Italian Sovereign Debt?
I mentioned this possibility over a month ago on August 5th, in the story “Chitaly – China to Purchase Italian Sovereign Debt?” Headlines just hit that Italy is in talks with China to directly buy Italian bonds according to the FT. This headline caused an immediate lift to depressed markets which is quickly getting faded. I believe this may…Read More
Investing In Europe – Now the Risk/Reward Is Attractive
Yesterday, I reviewed the reasons why the Eurozone as a monetary union is a flawed construct and why the implications for a breakup are disastrous. I believe this is so much the case, that the odds of a Eurozone unwind are actually quite low. The breakup option is really the self-immolation option as all parties…Read More
Greek Stock Market Surges on M&A
The Greek stock market is having a melt-up this morning, with the largest gains in 20-years. The index as a whole is up 14%, which isn’t bad for those who managed to get long Greek equities on Friday. And for more adventurous and daring sorts, the Cypriot stock market is up 18.5% this morning; Cyprus is leveraged…Read More
Market Fears of a Recession in 2012
Well, the market clearly isn’t looking for the light at the end of the tunnel. Italian 10-YR bonds have surged, rallying 80 basis points (from a 6.09% yield on Friday to 5.29% yield today). Spanish 10-YR bonds have also surged, rallying 88 basis points (from a 6.03% yield on Friday to a 5.14% yield today).…Read More
Chitaly – China to purchase Italian Sovereign Debt?
Crackerjack continues to hold the view, that what transpired in the markets is a crisis of confidence, more so than an actual crisis. There is a big and important difference. During the real-deal 2008-2009 economic crisis you had actual insolvent institutions as the value of mortgage securities declined when the US housing market imploded. The sovereign…Read More
Fears of a Crisis Grow
Fears of a Crisis Grow Interesting market reactions this morning. While many market participants are clearly being terrorized by a crisis of confidence (and this is always a risk) there look to be some genuinely better pieces of information. Markets are selling off based on rhetoric from the ECB. As we discussed yesterday, the ECB…Read More
Europe’s Debt Crisis – Impact on Markets
Click Here for Formatted Europe PDF “I think we need a bigger boat!” The words of Martin Brody, played by the late Roy Scheider, ring true today with regard to Europe’s spluttering attempt to avoid a sovereign debt crisis. Now that the side-show spectacle regarding raising the US debt ceiling (i.e., whether the US would…Read More