Turkey Day Highs

turkey

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome […]

No Man’s Land

no_mans_land

an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the tape continue. How did markets arrive at a point where a 3% pull-back is petrifying, and a 5% pull-back feels like a crash? The Brexit pull-back […]

Big in Japan; Can the Fed trump the BOJ?

alphaville

VIX back to the 15 range ahead of a consequential Fed meeting, deep into the economic cycle. Volatility crush continues into actual central bank announcements. Zombie US markets can’t go down but can’t rally either. After recent, underwhelming ECB announcements, markets sense more to come from the Fed, yet a gasping sense reigns omnipresent. What, actually, can […]

Valuing the Yellen Put

janet yellen dove

The Yellen Put, follows a line of Federal Reserve inspired put options, valuable to market participants of specific Fed Chair eras. The rationale behind the Fed Chair put is simple; with the Federal Reserve so vigilant to support any downtick in the economy and/or markets with interest rate cuts (Greenspan), quantitative easing (Bernanke), and ZIRF […]

ISM sinks to post-2009 lows; Industrial Economy Recession a Catch 22 for Fed

industrial

November ISM sank to the lowest level since 2009. Stunning, that the ISM (Institute for Supply Chain Management) survey, formerly known as NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers), printed 48.6, the lowest level since the throes of the financial crisis. For perspective, the last time the ISM printed sub-48, in June 2009, the S&P was 900. Today, […]

Super Dovish Fed Persists

dove cartoon

The Fed’s lack of policy response, and subsequent press conference, evokes memories of a scene in Bronx Tale… What’s going on here?  Now you can’t leave.  I will never forget the look on their faces.  All eight of them.Their faces dropped.  All their courage and strength was drained from their bodies.  They had a reputation for breaking up […]