Posts Tagged ‘ obama ’

Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

November 9, 2016
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Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the states expected to lean his way. Stocks, currencies, and commodity markets are in disarray. The S&P 500 futures sank approximately 100 points (~5%) around midnight, with a very strong snap-back ever since it became clear Trump would win (by midnight), and subsequently did win (at 2:30am). As of 5:00am the market is only down 1.5%. Initial thoughts:   FED policy uncertainty is the largest actual negative. Yellen, Brainard, and crew, are likely “fired” in 2017. The market will need to come to terms with a new, and potentially much more hawkish, Fed Chair. The Yellen Fed may move to the...

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Obama’s American Jobs Act Speech – Implications for Markets

September 8, 2011
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Obama’s American Jobs Act Speech – Implications for Markets

The S&P 500 futures were about unchanged heading into his speech and at last glance they were down 3 points – but this may be due to the 9/11 anniversary terror threat announcement more so than anything said in the speech. I come away moderately encouraged by Obama’s speech tonight. He stated at the outset that our economic recovery won’t be led by the government but by businesses – which is refreshing. I felt the tone was still somewhat abrasive but the fact that the size of the Jobs Act is larger than expected ($447B) may be a slight positive. I think the gist of the plan makes sense. While you are trying to emerge from recession you spend in order to stimulate. So long as the spending is...

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Charles Evans Dual Mandate Responsibilities Speech – Goes Too Far

September 8, 2011
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Charles Evans Dual Mandate Responsibilities Speech – Goes Too Far

Yesterday, Charles Evans who is the ninth president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a voting member on the FOMC, gave a speech at the European Economics and Financial Center in London. This speech goes too far with starting to push the Fed towards more stimulus as the returns from additional stimulus diminish. The debate revolving around additional Federal Reserve accommodation also made its way to the WSJ this morning. I believe that the economy is actually much stronger than is being presented by the media. Yes the unemployment rate is 9%+ and it has been tough to work it down, but the Fed can do little at this point to actually create jobs. The incremental returns from additional monetary stimulus aren’t needed and become risky with...

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Why Can’t We Create Jobs?

September 2, 2011
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Why Can’t We Create Jobs?

I’ve been holding a constructive view on the economy and markets for a number of reasons. The economy isn’t as soft as has been presented and market valuations are extremely low for a non-recessionary environment (if that is indeed the environment we are in). Today’s Employment Report was downright ugly. Being constructive, I could search for some of the glimmers within the guts of the report such as the household survey’s 331k new jobs or that the employment-population ratio ticked up slightly. This is a stretch though, and the report was clearly a disappointment because in normal cycles of economic recovery we “re-create” jobs which are lost during recessions. I believe the primary reasons the job market has been in a funk, where it is stable, but not creating...

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