Posts Tagged ‘ Donald Trump ’

Turkey Day Highs

November 29, 2016
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Turkey Day Highs

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome is good, the other outcome bad, it gets the bad outcome, and not only fails to sell off, but rallies on it! Enough to generate plenty of Aflac goose head shakes. Why did the market change its mind on Trump? Firstly, a Trump victory was never really “bad” it was just unfathomable, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric was at times, preposterously market unfriendly (forcing production in the US, undoing global trade). Upon further consideration, the...

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Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

November 9, 2016
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Trump; & The Arrogance of The Elites

In shocking, inexplicable, unfathomable, polarizing, surreal fashion, Donald Trump wins the presidency of the United States, by winning the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, along with all of the states expected to lean his way. Stocks, currencies, and commodity markets are in disarray. The S&P 500 futures sank approximately 100 points (~5%) around midnight, with a very strong snap-back ever since it became clear Trump would win (by midnight), and subsequently did win (at 2:30am). As of 5:00am the market is only down 1.5%. Initial thoughts:   FED policy uncertainty is the largest actual negative. Yellen, Brainard, and crew, are likely “fired” in 2017. The market will need to come to terms with a new, and potentially much more hawkish, Fed Chair. The Yellen Fed may move to the...

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No Man’s Land

October 5, 2016
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No Man’s Land

an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the tape continue. How did markets arrive at a point where a 3% pull-back is petrifying, and a 5% pull-back feels like a crash? The Brexit pull-back in June, was just about 5% on the nose, but it lasted only 2-days. Policy maker support of markets , vis-a-vis central bank actions, and ultra-low interest rates, stumble upon the end of the rainbow. Now what? The pressure on the Fed to assert its independence from politics, specifically the democratic party, is rising. Last week, Janet Yellen short circuited (in this clip) when confronted by Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey. Donald Trump,...

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