black friday

A number of Black Friday retail sales surveys were released over the weekend. All measures pointed to a robust start to the holiday shopping season. Strong data were received from the National Retail Federation, ShopperTrak, and Comscore. None of the individual sales measures are completely reliable, but the collective strength is likely indicative of a…

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falling

Recessions are typically caused by some sort of an excess. Real economic activity stretches too far and the subsequent unwind causes a retrenchment via a sudden and abrupt change in business and household behavior. There have been a number of excesses that have built up in the global economy over the past couple of decades.…

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