Posts Tagged ‘ stock market rally ’

Turkey Day Highs

November 29, 2016
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Turkey Day Highs

The bull market is set to turn 9 in 2017. Vanquished by the bull: Eurozone crisis, deflation, China bubbles, taper tantrums, BREXIT, and now Trump. The bullishness of the tape continues to shock, with the Trump rally, after the fact, looking strikingly similar to the BREXIT rally; the market provides every indication that one outcome is good, the other outcome bad, it gets the bad outcome, and not only fails to sell off, but rallies on it! Enough to generate plenty of Aflac goose head shakes. Why did the market change its mind on Trump? Firstly, a Trump victory was never really “bad” it was just unfathomable, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric was at times, preposterously market unfriendly (forcing production in the US, undoing global trade). Upon further consideration, the...

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Dovish Fed Minutes Ramp Market; Valuing the Yellen Put

October 10, 2015
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Dovish Fed Minutes Ramp Market; Valuing the Yellen Put

The September 16-17th FOMC minutes were released Thursday afternoon, continuing the market’s Beast Mode reaction to Fed dovishness. The S&P 500 completed the best week of the year, barely down-ticking from 1,893 to 2,015. The market rallied 7% from the lows after the September Employment report to the highs yesterday. The 122 handle rally takes the market multiple up one turn (from 15x to 16x multiple). Despite the euphoria of a quick fix, there are a number of reasons for caution after scrutiny of the Fed’s minutes. Yes, the Fed minutes were dovish. Full stop. The Fed awaits more data on improving labor markets despite a 5.1% unemployment rate, and inflation is expected to remain below 2% for some time. All the voting members, other than Lacker, voted against a hike....

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