Complacent Market; Fraught with Risk

stuck-in-mud

In a shockingly flat stretch, noteworthy for the lack of volatility, and an incredibly tight range, the market has gone absolutely NOWHERE from July to October. 20-30 basis point moves feel outsized, even though they are not, in any sort of historical context. On days when the market goes up, the VIX falls to a […]

China in Recession; Yuan Depreciation Imminent

yuan

China is at the end-game of its great economic transformation. Multiple iterations of 5-year plans, and flawed central economic planning, created a massive build-up in debt that can no longer be continued. China’s debt fueled growth is understood, but the impact of the deleveraging phase is becoming evident in real time. Various estimates of China […]