No Man’s Land


an anomalous, ambiguous, or indefinite area especially of operation, application, or jurisdiction definition two: financial market direction over the 2015-2016 period The meandering, low-volatility, sine wave oscillations of the tape continue. How did markets arrive at a point where a 3% pull-back is petrifying, and a 5% pull-back feels like a crash? The Brexit pull-back […]

Midsummer Issues Persist; Divergent Global Central Bank Actions Create Challenges


The market moves fast. Thankfully, in the rest of the world, trends of all kinds, generally move at a measured pace. The market overreacts to events and day-to-day happenings based on crowd think and behavioral issues. A change in trend will often start with a subtle data point or indicator, which in hindsight, ignites a […]

Stanley Fischer’s Jackson Hole Speech: Fed Determined to Lift-Off

stanley fischer

Stanley Fischer delivered a critical speech this weekend at the Jackson Hole, Economic Symposium, outlining the Fed’s forward looking view on inflation and the potential for a lessening of factors that dampen inflation. This speech signals the Fed is staying the course and determined for rate hike lift-off on the advertised time-table. CJF interprets this […]

Philippine Central Bank – Another Emerging Market Set to Ease Monetary Policy in the First Quarter

manny pacquiao

The Philippines is a very large nation that is off the radar of most mainstream economic analysis. The country has a population of 93 million, and the economy has enormous potential but exhibits inconsistent growth. The economy of the Philippines has a decently developed electronics/semiconductor industry and a large export industry for fruits, palm oil, […]

ECB Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points to 1% – Hawkish Press Conference Q&A Squashes Hopes of Sovereign Debt Purchases in Larger Amounts


The ECB issued a terse press release detailing an interest rate cut for the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem (from 1.25% to 1.0%) commencing on December 14th. In addition, the ECB cut rates on the marginal lending facility and deposit facility by 25 basis points. This move was widely expected and had a limited […]

China Starts Monetary Policy Easing Cycle & Rest of World Provides Additional Liquidity


Overnight, financial market sentiment turned around pretty dramatically. The China A-Share market sold-off by 3.3% and approached the vicinity of recent lows. Fears started to mount that Chinese central bankers were going to be slow to ease monetary policy based on continued inflation concerns. After Asian markets closed, the People’s Bank of China announced that […]

Que Lastima – Spain in a Vice as Interest Rates and Unemployment Soar

chased by bull

I’ve been writing about the impossibility of the ECB running appropriate monetary policy for 17 different nations. The dilemma couldn’t be more evident when contrasting the economy of Spain with the economy of Germany. Spain actually has less sovereign debt relative to GDP than does Germany. The problem for Spain isn’t the level of debt […]

China’s Trade Balance is Adjusting – the Largest Imbalance in the World is no Longer Growing

china trade

Markets in China rallied to start the week. Part of the rally resulted from “catch up” to US markets which closed strongly. But part of the rally was based on positive economic comments coming from Chinese officials. China’s President Hu Jintao pledged to focus on building imports which would boost global economic growth. IMF Deputy […]

Europe Must Decide Its Future – Self Induced Financial Crisis Has Led Europe to the Brink


After Wednesday’s market action around the world, it’s a good time for a big picture assessment on the state of the financial markets. The attitude out of Europe has pendulated between nonchalance and vitriolic attacks among the EU-17. Italian sovereign rates spiraling above 7% have brought the eleventh hour upon the region. Escalation of the […]

Chinese Inflation Turning Down – More Confirmation on Inflection Point

china prices

Overnight, China released inflation data for October, which came down as expected and declined meaningfully from the previous month. Chinese consumer inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose 6.1% in September, and 5.5% in October. This data shouldn’t be a complete surprise because China is on a tightening campaign with higher interest rates, lower […]

Magnifico! – Getting to Know Mario Draghi & Analysis of the ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference


The global equity markets have been held hostage by fears of a crisis since the summer. Taking another step back; crisis fears, macro, and policy responses have really been driving all financial markets since the summer of 2008. To be clear, the economy always has a meaningful impact on the investing environment, but the recent […]