Posts Tagged ‘France’
Financial Conditions are Driving all the Market Fears
Positive data and developments on the real economy front are being ignored while increases in financial stress are being focused on. The pervasive gloom in the financial markets is a result of growing fears of another financial crisis. If this were to unfold, the financial crisis would surely cause a global recession but I’m remaining…
Read MoreGreece Will Stay On Board – Merkel and Papandreou Plan a Dinner Date in Berlin
Greece will ultimately stay on board. There I’ve said it – and it is really what I think will happen. There were a number of “unity” headlines hitting over night which have led to a continuation of the rally in global risk assets. Emerging Markets which looked sufficiently panic sold to call out yesterday are…
Read MoreEurope’s Minimalist Approach Is the Wrong Course
What an 18 hours, as a conflux of negatives weigh on the market. In wrenching fashion, the US markets are down 6% since yesterday at 2:00pm. Most international markets around the world are down significantly more. Many emerging markets are off over 10% over two days. The Fed implemented Operation Twist yesterday, and the size…
Read MoreFrench Banking Crisis – Steps Needed to Stabilize the System
George Soros recently made an excellent point in an interview with Spiegel that the origin of the euro crisis was when Angela Merkel stated bailout support would be granted from each EU member state individually, and not by the European Union. He goes on to highlight that this approach shattered a vision of an EU that…
Read MoreInvesting In Europe – Now the Risk/Reward Is Attractive
Yesterday, I reviewed the reasons why the Eurozone as a monetary union is a flawed construct and why the implications for a breakup are disastrous. I believe this is so much the case, that the odds of a Eurozone unwind are actually quite low. The breakup option is really the self-immolation option as all parties…
Read MoreEurozone Breakup – Implications for Financial Markets are Disastrous
Over Labor Day weekend we saw an unfortunate breakdown in Europe’s approach, strategy, and near-term ability to avoid a financial crisis. In the Mecklenburg Western Pomerian state (along the coast of the Baltic Sea), Germans voted against the Christian Democratic Union which is a repudiation of Angela Merkel’s support and commitment to the Eurozone. I’ll…
Read MoreChanel, Gaspard Ulliel, Scorsese, and The Rolling Stones: The Awesome Power of Global Brands
One theme I have been highlighting is the value that exists in the developed European corporate sector which of course gets ignored as fears of a crisis escalate. Chanel having the ability to get Martin Scorsese to direct an advertisement with French actor, Gaspard Ulliel, with vintage Rolling Stones (“She Said Yeah – December’s Children…
Read MoreGerman Economy – The End of Detachment
The German economy has detached from other developed markets over the past year. Real GDP growth in Germany grew at 3.6% in 2010, and accelerated to 5.5% growth in the first quarter of this year. This morning, we learn that the initial estimate of Q2 GDP growth has fallen sharply to 0.5%. This is the…
Read MoreFrance to be downgraded – it should be – it doesn’t matter
Rumors are swirling that France is about to be downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. We do not believe France should be downgraded, unless every nation that is rated “AAA” changed to “AA” on Standard & Poor’s definition of “AA”. No country should have a higher sovereign credit rating than the US. No other nation has the world’s…
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