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Posts Tagged ‘ ECB ’

Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

May 22, 2012
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Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

European leaders have inadvertently created one of the financial world’s largest negative feedback mechanisms. By issuing long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) with cheap ECB funding for terms up to three years and encouraging European banks to take the funding and purchase assets such as sovereign debt, the ECB effectively has encouraged the European financial system to purchase and hold “money good” European sovereign debt. With cheap funding available and the ECB encouraging banks to take the money and invest/lend a situation was created where the natural buyers of sovereign debt were propped up and supported. With many of the bonds in Spain and Italy having maturities in the vicinity of 5-10 years, there is a good chance that the LTRO will need to continue for a number of years until...

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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

May 18, 2012
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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

Over the past week, it has become clear that a third annual conflagration throughout Europe is upon us. The crisis has morphed yet again, and like The Hydra, it has come back in a more menacing form. The issue this summer is more profound than the “sovereign debt crisis” which struck last summer. Last summer’s issues were always containable with simple resolve from the ECB. The market forced the issue in sudden manner and eventually a fix came in the form of 3-year long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).  Astute observers will notice that today, sovereign debt rates, while higher, have not flared up to the levels they reached last year. European interest rates should not approach summer levels because there is a set playbook that works to contain sovereign rates...

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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

April 23, 2012
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Like QE, the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operations Will Continue for Years

I came across an article in The Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard which does a good job of highlighting the circularity of the ECB’s LTRO and associated bond buying. As banks throughout Europe took advantage of ECB stimulus, which they were de facto encouraged to do by Mario Draghi and the ECB, it is clear that both the stimulus itself as well as ECB sovereign debt purchases will be needed until there is a solid economic recovery throughout the periphery of Europe. With austerity implementation to reduce deficits, economic recovery for many counties in Europe could be years away. With the automatic stabilization mechanisms in peripheral Europe broken as weaker economic growth leads to higher interest rates it will become necessary for Europe to continue to cap interest rates to...

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When Greek Debt Servicing Resolves – Spain is the Key to the Eurozone Compact

February 2, 2012
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When Greek Debt Servicing Resolves – Spain is the Key to the Eurozone Compact

The Spanish Empire reached the height of its powers in the 1500’s. Naval supremacy, decades of rapidly rising wealth, discovery of gold, and influence over the Catholic papacy led to Spain becoming a dominant world power. It wasn’t until Philip II and The Great Armada’s defeat against the English in the Anglo-Spanish War that Spain’s global power and sphere of influence crested. Fast forwarding 400 years, all of Europe and Spain are in a new crisis which is economic as opposed to military. As attention inevitably shifts from Greece to the next country at risk of contagion, the dynamics in Spain are likely to determine the EU-17’s future path. Spain has been through the wringer and if the country can emerge from recessionary dynamics, then all of Europe can....

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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

January 12, 2012
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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

December inflation data was released this morning in France and Germany. In both countries, the inflation rate was higher than expected and failed to come down relative to prior months. EU harmonized German inflation was reported at 2.3% and EU harmonized French inflation was 2.7%. Two large economies yet to report inflation data are Spain (to be released on Jan 13th) and Italy (to be released on Jan 16th). The stickiness of inflation shouldn’t be a complete surprise because part of the higher inflation in Europe is structural based on labor market and corporate sector rigidities. The process of implementing the structural reforms which have been described as essential will take a long period of time. The positive flow through to inflation dynamics could take years. Despite inflation remaining...

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Investing Ahead of a European Recession

December 14, 2011
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Investing Ahead of a European Recession

Investing ahead of a recession is like a trip to the dentist for a filling when the Novocain isn’t quite right. You know you are in for some pain, but it’s unclear just how much, and how long it will last. Europe is accepting the German path forward, which will at a minimum, lead to plenty of pain for many countries. Spain, Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Italy, and France are all experiencing, or likely to experience, a recession. Forward looking indicators have turned down, confidence has been dashed, austerity is being implemented, European financial assets are down sharply, and interest rates are higher. The ECB is taking a minimalist approach to fighting the recession and the 17 countries in the Eurozone have different agendas, interests, and policy aims. In the...

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The Rest of Europe Can’t be German

December 12, 2011
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The Rest of Europe Can’t be German

The EU Summit and ECB meeting which transpired last week are likely to be the final supporting actions by Eurozone officials this year. The tack forward for Europe has been clarified; move ahead with the long and arduous process of fiscal unification, supported by a reactive ECB. The path ensures two outcomes; that there will be flare ups along the way which will negatively impact sovereign debt/currency markets, and that Europe’s economies will continue to slow as the mending process is drawn out. The way forward will be the German way forward, and the rest of Europe will need to accept it in the near term. Germany has the strongest and most robust economy in the Eurozone. German unemployment is low and the euro has already depreciated to levels...

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ECB Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points to 1% – Hawkish Press Conference Q&A Squashes Hopes of Sovereign Debt Purchases in Larger Amounts

December 8, 2011
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ECB Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points to 1% – Hawkish Press Conference Q&A Squashes Hopes of Sovereign Debt Purchases in Larger Amounts

The ECB issued a terse press release detailing an interest rate cut for the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem (from 1.25% to 1.0%) commencing on December 14th. In addition, the ECB cut rates on the marginal lending facility and deposit facility by 25 basis points. This move was widely expected and had a limited impact on the euro or equity markets. The press conference and Q&A (45 minutes later) with financial reporters was where the real action took place. The only market friendly outcome was the announcement to extend lending to European banks from a one-year to a three-year term. The collateral requirements for these loans are also being loosened. The press conference was predominantly hawkish. When asked about hints earlier in the week that the ECB could...

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Mario Monti Announces Serious Austerity Plan for Italy – 2013 Balanced Budget Target Leads to Sovereign Debt Rally

December 5, 2011
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Mario Monti Announces Serious Austerity Plan for Italy – 2013 Balanced Budget Target Leads to Sovereign Debt Rally

Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, announced sweeping austerity measures and reforms which have bolstered confidence in Italian sovereign debt markets. Monti’s plan includes tax increases, government spending cuts, pension savings and raising the retirement age. Italy needs to enact these reforms over the next couple of years, and there are some political risks to implementation, but the immediate market response is positive for this round of announcements as opposed to the cynical reactions in the summer and fall. Italian 10-year borrowing costs have dropped from 6.68% to 6.10%. While it is dangerous to extrapolate any daily changes in sovereign debt yields due to the vagaries of European markets, this change is driven by a major announcement which would impact actual fundamentals (again if implemented) and the change in yields...

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China Starts Monetary Policy Easing Cycle & Rest of World Provides Additional Liquidity

November 30, 2011
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China Starts Monetary Policy Easing Cycle & Rest of World Provides Additional Liquidity

Overnight, financial market sentiment turned around pretty dramatically. The China A-Share market sold-off by 3.3% and approached the vicinity of recent lows. Fears were starting to mount that Chinese central bankers were going to be slow to ease monetary policy based on continued inflation concerns. After Asian markets closed, the People’s Bank of China announced that reserve ratios were being cut by 50 basis points, from 21.5% to 21.0%. The move was somewhat of a surprise and has started a turnaround in sentiment in the financial world. The reserve ratio cut is significant because it is the first time reserve ratios have been cut since 2008. China’s central bank has been allowing reserve ratios to generally trend higher since 2006 when the ratio used to be in the high...

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Germany’s First Failed Bond Auction – The European Crisis Continues to Spread

November 23, 2011
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Germany’s First Failed Bond Auction – The European Crisis Continues to Spread

Germany failed to get bids for 35% of the 10-year bonds auctioned today. Yields are up about 10 basis points this morning. The increase in borrowing cost is insignificant for Germany. Yields are still well below 2%, and Germany continues to benefit from the combination of very low borrowing costs, and a declining euro which helps support export competitiveness. The first sign of German bond market stress does highlight the risk the EU-17 is flirting with; the breakdown in confidence across the entire region. What started as a crisis in Greece has spread one-by-one to the rest of the European sovereigns. The reason the crisis has spread is not based upon profligate actions by the rest of the Eurozone. On the contrary, progress has already been made across Europe...

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Emerging Market Currencies Signaling More Risk Aversion

November 22, 2011
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Emerging Market Currencies Signaling More Risk Aversion

For almost a decade, emerging markets have been in a bull market with high growth rates, declining interest rates, and capital inflows. During the financial crisis, emerging markets were hit like financial assets around the world, and capital flowed out of the asset class. Over the course of 2010, and most of 2011, emerging market currencies have been strengthening once again. Recently, the European financial crisis has cast doubts on the risk appetite for emerging market investment. EM currencies experienced a sharp, across the board, selloff in September 2011. Currencies such as; the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso, and Indonesian Rupiah quickly declined by 20%. Part of the decline was based on the start of EM central bank rate cuts but the majority of the move was simply risk aversion....

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