janet yellen dove

The Yellen Put, follows a line of Federal Reserve inspired put options, valuable to market participants of specific Fed Chair eras. The rationale behind the Fed Chair put is simple; with the Federal Reserve so vigilant to support any downtick in the economy and/or markets with interest rate cuts (Greenspan), quantitative easing (Bernanke), and ZIRF…

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Main_Street_Bldg_Chesterton_IN_2012

Market leadership is constantly changing as sub-sectors come in and out of favor and particular investment attributes ebb and flow in popularity. One new theme in 2016 is the resurgence of “Main Street” type investments and overall investment exposures relative to “Wall Street” investment exposures. More simply put, mass market exposures are outperforming higher-end, upper income/luxury…

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Chinese_draak

What a start to the year. CJF’s contrarian prediction of 1,860 on the S&P came to be on January 20th. Subsequently, the market rallied strongly on the hint of more quantitative easing out of the ECB, and the adoption of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan. Any doubts that 2016 will be a…

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2016

“I would say happy new year but it’s not happy; it’s exactly the same as last year except colder.” -Robert Clark I find the quote fitting for financial markets, and CJF prognostications, after a very tough 2015, and an inauspicious start to 2016, with a week-one tailspin around the globe. The setup for 2016 isn’t…

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Nike hyperdunk

Nike (NKE) is in the midst of a strong 3-year run; operating trends are at cycle-high growth rates, health & wellness as a category is growing around the world, and Nike’s brand stewardship is incredibly on point across all major sports. The stock price followed results this year, up over 37% ytd, and the 35th…

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frozen han solo

At the widely anticipated December 16th Fed meeting, the Board of Governors did the expected, and finally raised the US federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The rate-hike failed to surprise markets; the move was telegraphed and written about in advance by Jon Hilsenrath in an article on the front page of the Wall…

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roulette

Volatility in the stock market is rising, intraday swings more violent, and high-to-low ranges increasing. The lurching action of the market is not driven by fundamentals, it’s difficult to profit from, and disconcerting. There isn’t a single item to pinpoint with respect to market angst, rather, a combination of factors, leading to manic sentiment changes.…

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the grinch

Bah humbug. Black Friday jumped the shark sometime around the turn of the century. Nonetheless, a disproportionate amount of retail and media focus continue to emphasize Black Friday’s importance as an event. While declining over several years, this year got markedly worse, to the point where media reports were forced to highlight the “normality” of…

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Tiffany

Yesterday, Tiffany & Co. (TIF) reported lackluster results for the third quarter, reducing annual earnings guidance for the second time in 3-months. Tiffany is a useful barometer for the global luxury consumer; business spans across all developed geographies, across multiple price points, in a variety of retail formats. Tiffany is iconic for its branded diamonds…

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french flag

We all eat at restaurants, go to stadiums, and walk down the street. The tragically successful terrorist attacks in Paris highlight the vulnerability of the human condition at any instant. While this has always been the case, and will continue to be so, civilization, and human progress, over past centuries and decades, reduces the chance…

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iconix

Usually, the juicy, salacious stuff comes to the fore during recession or crisis, when past misconduct can no longer be concealed. Recently, between Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and Volkswagen, there are plenty of good fraud stories to go around. Yesterday, sigh, Iconix Brand Group (ICON) revealed that its accounting statements, since 2013, were presented with smoke and…

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sentiment

The stock market is on fire. As negative, dour, downbeat, and gloomy was August, the market this fall (early fall), is contrastingly, positive, nonchalant, optimistic, and even euphoric. So it goes; a fast 11% sell off over 6 trading days, on little more than poor sentiment, and a 3% Chinese currency devaluation, followed by an…

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SBUX2

During a controversial 3Q earnings period, patterns continue to emerge, with beloved companies accelerating business trends in the midst of a tough global economy. Winners are thriving with differentiated brands, business models, and strategy; the stock market is awarding the victors to an almost unprecedented degree with rich valuations and surging stock prices. On the…

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tim cook

Apple posted an excellent Q3 result; 48 million iPhone shipments exceeded expectations, gross margin approached 40% (32 bps above last year), and EPS grew 43%, an impressive growth rate for the largest company in the world by market capitalization. Mac computer units grew 3% despite a 11% contraction in the overall global PC market. Iterations…

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