Stocks

Buy Dillard’s (DDS) – stock selloff overdone

August 12, 2011
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Buy Dillard’s (DDS) – stock selloff overdone

Dillard’s investment presents an opportunity. This post is different from a “focus investment” which is a much more in-depth analysis and suitable for longer-term investment. See the post on Guess (GES) with the attached PDF for a “focus investment” selection (we still like Guess btw). This trade idea is an observation on a market dislocation. Dillard’s (DDS) is down 17.5% on not beating expectations. The results at Dillard’s were not fundamentally bad. EPS were up from $0.10 last year to $0.32 this year (adjusted EPS). Same store sales trends remain healthy (+6% for Q2) and margins are expanding. The key quarter for full year earnings is Q4 – so you have to believe we won’t be in recession by the holidays. But if you believe we avoid recession, Dillard’s...

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Guess? (GES) – An undervalued global brand

July 29, 2011
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Guess? (GES) – An undervalued global brand

Guess (GES) is an undervalued global brand. The stock performance has decoupled relative to many other global apparel stocks based on a number of factors such as: fashion, US comparable store sales, exposure to Europe, and management team changes. Negativity looks overblown for investors who have patience and perspective, especially relative to valuations of other apparel brands with global aspirations such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Ralph Lauren, PVH, Coach, and True Religion. The following research will explore why Guess is an investment opportunity now: Here are the reasons why Guess (GES) shares are a buy right now with almost 100% upside to $74 in two years: 1)  Organic growth rate is high 2)  Fears related to exposure to Italy are overblown 3)  China will be a growth driver for...

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Welcome to Crackerjack Finance

July 29, 2011
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Welcome to Crackerjack Finance

Crackerjack Finance holds the view that superior investment results come from three areas: knowledge, perspective, and disciplined research. After growing weary of financial websites and blogs that either a) regurgitate headlines or b) scratch the surface with quick-and-easy investment recommendations, Crackerjack was conceptualized in order to provide deeper investment analysis with regard to the broad economy, overall markets, sector themes, geopolitical implications, and company/stock research. Crackerjack believes in an open forum where analysis can be exchanged and stand on its own merit. The idea is to create a forum for passionate investors. Crackerjack believes in anonymity so ideas can be evaluated, shared, and debated freely. All investment ideas will either be from Crackerjack’s founders or from outside submissions that are vetted by Crackerjack. Investors are encouraged to take ownership...

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