treading-water

After a one year hiatus (CJF writing hiatus), the US equity market remains resilient, hovering around 2,100, in a historically tight range for the past 9-months. The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and now 200-day, moving averages are converging, because again, the market is flat. A few observations to re-engage investment dialogue on this blog… At risk…

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2001 space

Please excuse the summer lull – anticipating more regular posts after a well needed period of summer travel! Two posts ago (in late May) focused on the market ascent to 1,900. In relatively short order, another centennial milestone is surpassed with the market melt-up to 2,000 over the past 15 trading days. Recapping the market…

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A_Tale_of_Two_Cities

Last week’s “second” 1Q14 GDP print revised to a -1.0% annualized growth rate relative to the prior print of +0.1%. The second 1Q14 GDP print was shrugged off, with equity markets rallying to new highs, in impressive fashion, given the seasonally low volumes around Memorial Day. While the 1Q14 print is still not “final” (there…

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n1900b

The US stock market, the best market in the world for a multitude of reasons, hit new highs on Friday, ascending to the 1,900 level, on a closing basis. The market is confounding because of the lack of normal draw-down (no meaningful pull-backs in a long enough time to be scary) and because many high…

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widowmaker

Since 1990, one trade that has always lost money, over any reasonable time period, has been the shorting of JGBs (Japanese 10-year). This trade, unique in its consistency, developed its own name; “the widow maker”. With JGBs yielding 57 bps today, the widow maker is alive and kicking. Over the past 24-year time period, JGB…

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bull

1Q14 earnings will begin in earnest by mid-April with the market flirting with new highs over the past several sessions. Geopolitical concerns, and Fed taper fears, are gradually fading into the background, and investors are in for a period of individual earnings results driving stocks, and ultimately, market performance. The setup for 1Q is unique;…

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snap crackle pop

Over the past 18-months, the S&P 500 surged 43%, without more than a 6% drawdown. That dear reader is a Bull market. This post is somewhat backward looking based on the writing hiatus at CF. The forward plan is for content at regular interviews from here. Where we stood: Entering June 2012, the market stood at…

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buy sell

Fourth quarter earnings season is upon us while the market is off to a torrid start to the year. While the S&P 500 is up 4% year-to-date, there are a number of riskier indexes and sectors doing considerably better. The NASDAQ is up 6.3%, the Russell 2000 5.2%, the Hang Seng 7.6%, the Brazilian BOVESPA…

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paranormal

PARANORMAL: beyond the range of normal experience or scientific explanation, not in accordance with scientific laws. A great friend of mine, and incredibly savvy investor, recently pointed me to Bill Gross’ January 2012 Investment Outlook: “Towards the Paranormal”. He suggested it was an intriguing, provocative, and worthwhile read. After reading the four page monthly I…

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2012

In 2011, the stock market experienced some dramatic swings, heightened volatility, managed some months of tremendous strength and sickening weakness. After an exhausting ride, the S&P 500 index returned to precisely where it started. For those who appreciate extreme precision, the market was down on the year based on the second decimal point of the…

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santa

The warmth and subtle humidity in the air stirs emotions as one envisions heading to the ball park for opening day, preparing for the start of a new fishing season, or produces visuals (perhaps with dread) of how that new swimsuit or bikini will fit. Oh wait, it’s December 22nd! The northeast part of the United…

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ghost

2011 has been a difficult year for most investors. Market sentiment oscillated throughout the year and generating returns has been exceedingly difficult to come by, let alone maintain. The world experienced at least three distinct crisis; Japanese nuclear disaster, Arab Spring, and Sovereign Debt contagion through Europe. All three of these events were enough to…

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merkel

The EU Summit and ECB meeting which transpired last week are likely to be the final supporting actions by Eurozone officials this year. The tack forward for Europe has been clarified; move ahead with the long and arduous process of fiscal unification, supported by a reactive ECB. The path ensures two outcomes; that there will…

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mario monti

Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, announced sweeping austerity measures and reforms, bolstering confidence in Italian sovereign debt markets. Monti’s plan includes tax increases, government spending cuts, pension savings and raising the retirement age. Italy needs to enact these reforms over the next couple of years, and there are some political risks to implementation, but the…

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