Monthly Archives: March 2014

Crimea Annexation; the implications for global capital allocation

March 27, 2014
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Crimea Annexation; the implications for global capital allocation

  Around geopolitical events, political posturing is generally the short-term focus for all parties involved, and markets, but the longer-term implications are often unrelated to what is obvious in the short-term. The despotic approach of Vladimir Putin, and his “damn the torpedoes” approach to dealing with market/economic consequences exacerbates this effect. A fascinating take on the longer-term consequences of Putin’s bravado is detailed in the Journal of Foreign Affairs.  Recent actions are presented as a negative for Russia and a positive for the Ukraine. While this will take several years to validate/invalidate, the article is provocative and provides at least a partial justification for financial markets (outside Russia/Ukraine) to come to terms with the annexation issue, and largely ignore it. Perhaps Ukraine/Russia geopolitical issues become 2014’s version of last...

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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

March 25, 2014
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Snap, Crackle and Pop; Uninterrupted 18-month Bull Market!

Over the past 18-months, the S&P 500 surged 43%, without more than a 6% drawdown. That dear reader is a Bull market. This post is somewhat backward looking based on the writing hiatus at CF. The forward plan is for content at regular interviews from here. Where we stood: Entering June 2012, the market stood at approximately 1,300 (S&P 500). Concerns: Europe redux EM collapse Fed policy “the boat was already missed” Since June 2012, the market powered ahead, in retrospect, making all of the above concerns appear overblown relative to the investment opportunities at this time. At a minimum, the above concerns were dramatically ill-timed. CF’s outlook for 2012 was bullish but not enough so.  In the 2012 themes post: Crackerjack 2012 predictions: No recession <check> Valuation matters and...

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