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Monthly Archives: May 2012

How Heavily Shorted is Facebook?

May 30, 2012
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How Heavily Shorted is Facebook?

It is well known how the Facebook (FB) IPO is setting up to be the flop of the decade. Stunning that one of the profound technological/media companies of a generation is now such a historically awful IPO. There are plenty of negatives stemming from the debacle including: Continued disillusion from retail investors who heavily participated in the deal Additional mistrust of Wall Street as issues regarding conflict of interest and fiduciary duty get scrutinized Another instance of poor judgment at a Wall Street brokerage, Morgan Stanley, right on the heels of JP Morgan’s risk management, which was, well, “flawed, complex, poorly reviewed, poorly executed, and poorly monitored.” A few items to think about for longer-term investors who are looking to a position in the shares: 1)  Facebook shares have...

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Heinz – An Emerging Market Food Leader

May 29, 2012
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Heinz – An Emerging Market Food Leader

Heinz (HNZ) had an Analyst Day on Thursday last week with about four hours of management presentations and Q&A posted on the investor relations section of the Heinz website. This presentation is a wonderful way to understand the Heinz business model and appreciate the strategic vision of the company. Heinz stock had a relatively strong run hitting new all-time highs around $55. Post-results the shares have pulled back based on fears relating to the extent of reinvestment into restructuring projects, weakness in the frozen entrée category, exposure to Europe, and a near-term reduction in sales expectations as the company is being hit by foreign exchange and focusing on some low hanging fruit margin opportunities. Despite the concerns, Heinz is very well positioned strategically with a number of positives within...

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Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

May 22, 2012
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Europe’s Prisoner’s Dilemma – LTRO Needs to Continue for Years

European leaders have inadvertently created one of the financial world’s largest negative feedback mechanisms. By issuing long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) with cheap ECB funding for terms up to three years and encouraging European banks to take the funding and purchase assets such as sovereign debt, the ECB effectively has encouraged the European financial system to purchase and hold “money good” European sovereign debt. With cheap funding available and the ECB encouraging banks to take the money and invest/lend a situation was created where the natural buyers of sovereign debt were propped up and supported. With many of the bonds in Spain and Italy having maturities in the vicinity of 5-10 years, there is a good chance that the LTRO will need to continue for a number of years until...

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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

May 18, 2012
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Deja Déjà Vu – A Third Summer of European Crisis

Over the past week, it has become clear that a third annual conflagration throughout Europe is upon us. The crisis has morphed yet again, and like The Hydra, it has come back in a more menacing form. The issue this summer is more profound than the “sovereign debt crisis” which struck last summer. Last summer’s issues were always containable with simple resolve from the ECB. The market forced the issue in sudden manner and eventually a fix came in the form of 3-year long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).  Astute observers will notice that today, sovereign debt rates, while higher, have not flared up to the levels they reached last year. European interest rates should not approach summer levels because there is a set playbook that works to contain sovereign rates...

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