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Monthly Archives: January 2012

Global Demographics – An Important Multi-Year Investment Theme

January 26, 2012
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Global Demographics – An Important Multi-Year Investment Theme

With much fanfare, estimates of the earth’s population recently surpassed 7 billion people. Population growth rates have been staggering for decades, for a number of reasons. The straightforward explanation is that global birth rates have remained high while there has been tremendous improvement in child mortality rates and life expectancy. Sewer system implementation in the 1800s helped separate waste from drinking water and cut down on the spread of cholera and typhus. Later medical advances in the form of a smallpox vaccine and Penicillin, coupled with DDT control for Malaria, helped more people live longer. As people lived longer, more reached childbearing age and had children themselves. Back in the 18th century, replacement fertility was up to six children. In order to keep population stable, women needed to have...

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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

January 19, 2012
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Investment Themes for Q4 Earnings Season

Fourth quarter earnings season has commenced while the market is off to a torrid start to the year. While the S&P 500 is up 4% year-to-date, there are a number of riskier indexes and sectors which are doing considerably better. The NASDAQ is up 6.3%, the Russell 2000 5.2%, the Hang Seng 7.6%, the Brazilian BOVESPA 9%, and the S&P Homebuilders up 17%. These are stunning returns over a two-week period relative to how difficult it was to simply earn flat index returns plus the dividend yield for all of 2011. The market did this last year in January and February so there is a bit of a deja-vu feel to the start of the year. From higher valuations, it was a rough rest of the year from February...

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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

January 12, 2012
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Inflation in Europe is Sticky – Another Reason the ECB to Remain Balanced

December inflation data was released this morning in France and Germany. In both countries, the inflation rate was higher than expected and failed to come down relative to prior months. EU harmonized German inflation was reported at 2.3% and EU harmonized French inflation was 2.7%. Two large economies yet to report inflation data are Spain (to be released on Jan 13th) and Italy (to be released on Jan 16th). The stickiness of inflation shouldn’t be a complete surprise because part of the higher inflation in Europe is structural based on labor market and corporate sector rigidities. The process of implementing the structural reforms which have been described as essential will take a long period of time. The positive flow through to inflation dynamics could take years. Despite inflation remaining...

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Philippine Central Bank – Another Emerging Market Set to Ease Monetary Policy in the First Quarter

January 11, 2012
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Philippine Central Bank – Another Emerging Market Set to Ease Monetary Policy in the First Quarter

The Philippines is a very large nation that is off the radar of most mainstream economic analysis. The country has a population of 93 million, and the economy has enormous potential but has exhibited inconsistent growth. The economy of the Philippines has a decently developed electronics/semiconductor industry and has a large export industry for fruits, palm oil, and coconut oil. The World Bank estimates that the Philippines is the 43rd largest economy in the world yet many investors would be shocked to learn that it is forecast to be top 20 in the world by 2050. Economic growth in the Philippines has been volatile based on agricultural gearing and dependence on inflows of overseas remittances. While the Philippines is not a member of the BRICS-2 (CIVETS) it is a...

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Negative German Yields – Implications for Risk Averse Financial Markets

January 10, 2012
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Negative German Yields – Implications for Risk Averse Financial Markets

On Monday, Germany gained entrance to a rarified club of sovereign nations which were paid to borrow money. This has been a feat which the US was able to accomplish during the depths of the financial crisis. Now Germany has been able to achieve the same feat during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. In a debt auction on Monday, Germany was able to sell 3.9B EUR worth of six-month debt priced at an average yield of -0.0122%. The auction was almost 2x oversubscribed. Investors were willing to pay Germany a little over a basis point to take money for six months and simply give it back. These are fascinating times within financial markets, where there is no term premium for money and such extreme risk aversion. There are a...

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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

January 6, 2012
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On Paranormal – A Review of the “New-New Normal”

PARANORMAL: beyond the range of normal experience or scientific explanation, not in accordance with scientific laws. A great friend of mine, and incredibly savvy investor, recently pointed me to Bill Gross’ January 2012 Investment Outlook: “Towards the Paranormal”. He suggested it was an intriguing, provocative, and worthwhile read. After reading the four page monthly I immediately agreed with all of those qualifications even though aspects of the paranormal thesis didn’t sit exactly right with me. After pondering for a couple of days, here are my observations (Bill Gross, if you are a Crackerjack Finance reader, please feel free to counter-comment at any time). Now would be the time to read the original piece on the PIMCO website to get much more out of today’s thoughts. The financial markets are...

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Spain & Germany – In Sickness and in Health

January 4, 2012
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Spain & Germany – In Sickness and in Health

The plan forward with the Eurozone crisis is the German plan forward. Germany has proposed closer fiscal union and increased austerity for EU-17 nations with high deficits and/or high debt burdens. This path suits German interests well because there is little that needs to be changed. Unfortunately from Spain’s standpoint, the German path forward is not what Spain needs. This dynamic is highlighted with yesterday’s unemployment releases. Spain hit a 22.8% unemployment rate, which is an all-time high, while Germany released a 6.8% unemployment rate, which represents a new low since German reunification. Here is a chart of the unemployment rate spread (as defined by Spain less Germany): It is clear that Spain needs dramatically lower interest rates relative to appropriate monetary policy set rates for Germany. It is...

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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

January 3, 2012
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2012 Global Investment Themes and Predictions

In 2011, the stock market experienced some dramatic swings, and with heightened volatility, managed some months of both tremendous strength and sickening weakness. After an exhausting ride the S&P 500 index returned to precisely where it started. For those who appreciate extreme precision, the market was down on the year based on the second decimal point of the index. The S&P 500 started the year at 1,257.64 and officially closed at 1,257.60. That is about a third of a basis point down and the reason the final index return has been recorded as: (0.00%). Of course the actual return that investors received includes dividends, and on this measure the S&P 500 total return was 2.11%. After clarifying the details, the market essentially tread water for the year. We commence...

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