ICI Mutual Fund Flows – “A Waterfall”


  ici_flow_aug ICI mutual fund flows for the equity asset class (Aug) were released today with an outflow of $23.5B which rivals the exit from equities back in the depths of the financial crisis (late 2008). This marks a stunning, abrupt, run for the exits. While the analogies to 2008-09 abound, we think there are […]

Buy Dillard’s (DDS) – stock selloff overdone


Dillard’s investment presents an opportunity. This post is different from a “focus investment” which is a much more in-depth analysis and suitable for longer-term investment. See the post on Guess (GES) with the attached PDF for a “focus investment” selection (we still like Guess btw). This trade idea is an observation on a market dislocation. […]

“Risk On” – DOW surges 423!


European banks, the cause of yesterday’s collapse, all rallied today. CDS spreads in Europe narrowed across the board, French and Italian sovereign debt rallied, and Gold sold off 41 dollars (down 2.3%). Earnings continue to meet low expectation (Kohl’s, Cisco). The BOVESPA rallied sharply, and the VIX declined all day. After an exhausting first 4-days of the […]

China Rate Hike Cycle Over?

Markets are on edge. This type of volatility is wrenching. It weighs on professional investors, it interjects more emotion into the investment process, while elevating stress, and causing people to lose sleep. The above is natural as money is made or lost at an outsized pace in hourly timeframes. This phenomena is measured by the VIX […]

France to be downgraded – it should be – it doesn’t matter

french model

Rumors are swirling that France is about to be downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. We do not believe France should be downgraded, unless every nation that is rated “AAA” changed to “AA” on Standard & Poor’s definition of “AA”. No country should have a higher sovereign credit rating than the US. No other nation has the world’s […]

Is yesterday’s 5% rally sustainable?

Why was the market up 5% yesterday after the Fed meeting? At first the market sold off 2%. Subsequently, the market came back to unchanged and rallied another 5%. Whoa. Our “green light” to buy worked out, if just for a day. Of course what everyone cares about is what to do going forward. We […]